In the latest episode of Power and Consequences, we (Gary Gensler and Simon Johnson) discuss the US midterm elections and their likely consequences. Every election matters, but this feels like a particularly important moment in American democratic history.
With polls (and betting markets) suggesting that the House of Representatives (and maybe the US Senate) will change leadership hands, much change is in the mix.
Regardless of outcome, it’s often said, “Whoever defines the narrative controls the debate and next political battle.”
Thus, there will be a great deal of debate about the meaning of the midterm results. Why did voters vote the way they did? Which ideas and coalitions prevailed? Who came out to have their voices heard? Did any clear mandates come from the election?
Mid-term elections also act as a starter’s gun to the many competing voices — in Congress, amongst 2028 presidential candidates, within the Trump administration facing its last two years of governing, amongst the public at large.
Which of these upcoming debates simply will be messaging, setting the stage for 2028 and beyond? What may Congress and the President actually get done on behalf of the American public — on affordability, on AI, on healthcare, on immigration, trade and the Iran war?
A change in the House (and possibly the Senate) will start a round of wide-ranging oversight hearings, including investigations into what has been done these past two years. Once again, we’ll likely see what unfolds from possible impeachment processes of the president or members of his cabinet. If the Senate flips, we’ll see presidential nominees get closer reviews with more not being confirmed at all. Transparency — when handled well — can bring a great deal of disinfection and be healthy for democracy.
Hanging over it all — already — is the impact on the next presidential and congressional elections. Which candidates and ideas — in both parties — will be able to gather momentum? Ideas on how to better guide technology, share prosperity, and make life more affordable? Ideas on the U.S. role in the global order? Or will the U.S. (and the world) need to wait for sufficient political consensus to be form before we address our many challenges and opportunities?
This is going to be a long and tough 2028 presidential campaign. Candidates, start your engines.
