In the latest episode of Power and Consequences, we (Gary Gensler and Simon Johnson) discuss the economic situation in Cuba, the political drivers of US decisions relative to Cuba, and what is likely to happen next.
Cuba has played an outsize role in American politics over the past 65 years, including: the Bay of Pigs (April 1961), the Cuban missile crisis (October 1962), the 1996 Helms-Burton Act, Elián González (1999), the partial thaw under President Obama, and that thaw being undone by the first Trump Administration.
What should we make of the current confrontation, including the message sent in Spanish by Secretary of State Marco Rubio on May 20, 2026 regarding “a new relationship between the U.S. and Cuba?'“
Will the US invade Cuba? Might the Cuban economy soon be crushed by the tightening trade embargo, including the severe limits on imported oil? Or could there be an amicable pathway towards economic reform and liberalization?
From the American perspective, is this more about a long legacy of messaging (Remember the Maine!) or the Donroe doctrine or electoral politics in Florida (and Republican primaries)? Is there any geopolitical rationale for wanting to overthrow the Cuban regime? If the US does exercise effective control over Cuban politics, and evicts military-backed GAESA from its leading role, will Washington provide generous aid or other means for Cuba to get back on its feet?
There is some macroeconomic information on Cuba available through the World Bank, but we would strongly caution against taking this at face value. Cuba withdrew from the International Monetary Fund in 1964; consequently, without IMF quality control, these data likely are inaccurate and perhaps misleading. Cuba is in deep economic and humanitarian crisis.
Here are a couple of classic articles for your consideration:
‘Cuba Refrozen’, by David Rieff, Foreign Affairs, July 1, 1996.
‘Farewell, Fidel’, by Michael J. Bustamante, Foreign Affairs, November 27, 2016.
And for summary assessments:
‘What’s Next for Cuba?’ A Project Syndicate roundtable, March 26, 2026.
‘Cuba on the Brink’, by Michael J. Bustamante, Foreign Affairs, Jan 1, 2026.
Along with some other recent articles representing a range of views:
‘Pentagon puts building blocks in place for Cuba invasion’, Paul McCleary, Politico, April 27, 2026.
‘Cuba’s Only Choice: A Deal with Washington is the Island’s Best Hope’ by Michael J. Bustamante and Ricardo Herrero, Foreign Affairs, May 29, 2026.
‘Attacking Cuba would be a huge mistake’, The Economist, April 27, 2026.
‘Ada Ferrer on Cuba: What Threat Can a Declining Cuba Be?’ Weekend Interview, Bloomberg, April 29, 2026
