In this week’s episode, we (Gary Gensler and Simon Johnson) discuss the potential consequences of the global race to build and use Artificial Intelligence. As discussed in Episode 19: Who’s Winning the Global AI Race?, the US and China currently are competing for the lead in the many interconnected layers of the AI tech stack.
The US may currently lead in large language models, chip design, and data center funding, but China has impressive computer science capabilities, leads in robotics, and its large language model (LLM) performance generally measures only months behind the US. China’s greater emphasis on ‘open-weight’ models also may be an effort to promote faster global adoption and diffusion of their models.
Europe, the UK, Japan, India, Mideast nations, and the rest of the world, though, aren’t sitting by idly. Each country seeks to establish some scope of AI sovereignty to exert control over their own economy and national security — as Gary and former US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan discussed in ‘AI & The Future of Sovereignty’.
How much will countries without their own LLMs or data centers, though, have choices about what models to use? Might the rest of the world see a significant portion of AI’s economic benefit accrue to the US and China? If imbalances persist, what might be the geo-political consequences? Might the world find that the US or China use AI economic leverage to influence other countries’ geo-political decisions? As AI continues to change weaponry, how will it shift strategic balances?
As discussed in Episode 13: Can AI Behave Responsibly?, there also are differing policy approaches around the globe to AI. The European Union has adopted a relatively more restrictive approach to release and use of AI models. The US to date has been more permissive.
AI also presents significant labor market economic policy choices. We’ll consider in a future episode what might be the net effect on employment & wages — and which countries might do better or worse in this regard? Reflecting on China, what does their big push on robotics mean for all their people looking to find a good job?
