In this week’s episode of Power and Consequences, we (Gary Gensler and Simon Johnson) ask whether science – and public investment in scientific research – matters for economic growth and other outcomes, such as national security and income inequality.
This might seem like a strange question to ask in the age of AI, amidst grandiose promises/dreams for what advanced technology could deliver — along with growing fears about what too much innovation (or the wrong kind of vision or just a lot of data centers) might bring. And the Trump Administration is promising a golden age of science. But, at the same time, universities are being squeezed financially, PhD admissions at top schools (like MIT) are down, and there are big political fights ongoing about the scale and direction of funding for basic research.
The U.S. federal government used to spend a lot more on R&D as a percent of GDP than it does now. Should we go back to that level of commitment? Or should we rely on the private sector to lead the way in creating new scientific ideas? What do we lose (or gain) when the profit motive predominates in this space? And are we in some way undermining our American advantages (including for commerce and national security) under the Trump Plan for science?
Here’s a relevant speech by Gary, to the National Press Club, in July 2023: “Isaac Newton to AI”, including these lines: “AI is going to continue significantly transforming science, technology, and commerce. I suspect Newton, though, would agree that it is important to focus on the micro and macro challenges of AI. Given that we’re dealing with automation of human intelligence, the gravity of these challenges is real.”
Simon’s two books related to this topic.
Jump-Starting America: How Breakthrough Science Can Revive Economic Growth and the American Dream, by Simon and Jonathan Gruber. Published in 2019, argues for big investments in U.S. science, spreading this around the country, and creating an “innovation dividend” shared with everyone. This is the best way to create more good jobs today.
Power and Progress: Our 1000-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity, by Simon and Daron Acemoglu. Published in 2023, shows that technological “progress” does NOT always help everyone, even if it boosts productivity; shared prosperity requires specific conditions – which are achievable in the age of AI, in principle, but this is not the course that most countries are currently on.
